Observations on the world today.

Wednesday, May 05, 2004

My Optimism Has a Certain Logic 

Taegan Goddard posts this: Political Wire: Democrats Face Uphill Battle For House
With nearly all polls showing a close presidential race this year, it's increasingly unlikely Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives.

A Political Wire reader writes with the key reason: In 2000, Al Gore carried 198 House districts while Bush won in 237. That means that -- even before last year's redistricting battle in Texas -- Democrats would need to win every seat Gore won last time, plus an additional 20 GOP seats. For Republicans to retain control, they only need to win 92% of the Republican districts and none of the Democratic ones.
Now, I don't disagree with the numbers here at all, but I do think that this overlooks a significant component. As Bush continues to foul up the country, more and more republicans will simply choose to stay home on election day. And as more and more moderates make the decision to vote for Kerry, they too may vote democrat just for the statement it would send. But even if they don't, without the die-hard republicans, the democrats cannot help but pick up those seats.


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