Observations on the world today.

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Timeline of an "October Surprise" 

FOXNews.com - U.S. & World - Report: Zarqawi Trying to Get Message to Bin Laden
Jordanian terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, believed responsible for a series of attacks, kidnappings and beheadings in Iraq, has been trying to communicate with Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden, a senior defense official tells FOX News.

Within the past several days, the anonymous defense official said, a courier had been intercepted inside Iraq bearing a message from Zarqawi to bin Laden. The official would not reveal the contents of the message or exactly when and where its bearer had been found.
Wow! What a scoop! /sarcasm

Here is a brief recap of recent history:

Jan. 29, 2004
U.S. Military Sure of Catching Bin Laden

The U.S. military is "sure" it will catch Osama bin Laden this year, perhaps within months, a spokesman declared Thursday, but Pakistan said it would not allow American troops to cross the border in search of the al-Qaida leader.
July 8, 2004
July Surprise?

A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs [i.e., high-value al Qaida targets] before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.
July 29, 2004
Pakistan Arrests Embassy Bombings Suspect

Pakistan has arrested a Tanzanian al-Qaida suspect wanted by the United States in the 1998 bombings at U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the interior minister said Friday. He said the suspect was cooperating and had given authorities "very valuable" information.
Aug. 1, 2004
Big Apple Terror?

ABC News has learned that federal and New York City officials have received credible intelligence that al Qaeda has been plotting to carry out suicide attacks on corporations based in the city.
Aug. 2, 2004

The Foxnews story linked above.

Aug. 3, 2004
Ridge Defends New Terror Threat Warning

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge on Tuesday defended the decision to tighten security in New York and Washington even though the intelligence behind the latest terror warnings was as much as four years old.
This doesn't take a genius. The Foxnews story is a planted story with zero specifics so that they can point to it as where they got the intelligence which leads them to the "capture" of bin Laden or Zarqawi or both.

Do not be surprised if we get reports that Zarqawi is captured or killed just as the Republican National Convention wraps up. And expect news that bin Laden was taken sometime in October.



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